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20130113
20130121
Search Results 0 to 7 of about 8 (some duplicates have been removed)
to see a default as we get closer to the debt ceiling deadline. will this put a limit on what stocks do over the next few weeks? >> i read this weekend another piece that says the social security checks aren't going to come out. they're going to come out, okay? we can go down this path and scare people. but i'm not going there. i remember when i was going to the balk last year and we had the debt ceiling. a woman said, i'm not going to get my social security check. and i said you will. she said, no, i'm not. i feel like, it's incumbent on people to say, look, maybe there's a week -- but when you say social security's not going to come out, we are not a third world -- an emerging third world nation, whatever is political to say. we can really scare people here. our job should not be to scare people. but you can scare people very easily. >> right. on the other side people are citing mutual funds, we talked about this on friday, and thursday of last week as a positive. perhaps you shouldn't, given there were so many inflows to bond funds. the s&p was up nicely last year and the year prior,
the sequestered, the debt ceiling, and you have the continuing resolution. the sequestered and debt ceiling fall on top of each other towards the end of february. these to say and republican leadership and the senate, which is served in for 12 years, you never take a hostage you cannot shoot. the problem with the house was they took hostage the cannot shoot when they took the fiscal cliff. if the republican members of congress take the debt ceiling as a hostage, it is a hostage you cannot shoot. as a very practical matter, if we go over the debt ceiling, we do not increase the debt ceiling, republicans will not win the debate. they will argue they are not increasing it because they do not want to control spending but they will not win the debate. what will happen is the white house will pay with cash flow of the interest on the debt. the debt will not be called. what they might not pay our social security checks. the moment the american citizen figures out they may not go out, the game is over. tenfold. because believe me, though congress can stand up to the senior lobby. so that is not a legiti
creates an entirely self-inflicted shortage through the debt ceiling. how is it exactly that we're supposed to have this crisis that leads to a double dip recession? it really doesn't even make sense as a story. and yet it is one of those things that people say and by and large, are not contradicted on. >> we keep hearing from the right that we're here on the path to becoming greece, and you say that that's impossible? >> yeah. we, even if, suppose that people decided, investors decided they don't like u.s. government debt, it can't cause a funding crisis because the u.s. government prints money. it's even hard to see how it can drive up interest rates because the fed sets interest rates at the short end, and why exactly would the long run rates go up if you don't expect the fed to raise rates? it could lead to a weakening of the u.s. dollar against other currencies. but that's actually a good thing. that would make u.s. exports more competitive. that would actually boost our economy. so it's, actually impossible to tell that story, as far as i can tell. and yet, it's not, again
the debt ceiling in a timely manner and providing more clarity on policies could actually generate a boost in confidence and open the door for faster growth in the second half of 2013. looking at the labor market, we see lackluster growth in 2013 wing on job creation. we actually see gains of slowing in the first half of 2013 before picking up. it is a little bit slower than in the 4 1/4 with the doctrines of around 50,000 per month. slower gdp growth is going to be driven, we think, by a consumer that is going to be hobbled by tax increases. we will remain positive in 2013 combined -- in 2013, but not appositive in consumer spending over the fourth quarter the second half will be particularly weighed down by less money in their paychecks. and we think as the year progresses, the strength of the housing market, the while the effects of the home price gains and perhaps to improvement in housing could lead to somewhat stronger consumer spending. we did see a 12% gain in housing starts this morning month over month. 37% year over year. these are strong numbers. we did see improvement in home
that is failing to agree on increasing the debt ceiling on time and prior to that preferably and reaching agreement on medium-term debt reduction. that i mentioned earlier. for the nonadvanced economies, and i'm putting together the emerging markets as well as the low income countries, clearly those countries are faring at a much better pace in terms of growth. but everywhere i've traveled in the last two months in africa, in latin america and in asia there's always been a concern about the unbalances and the lack of decisive action to address the advanced economies' crisis. so this spillover effect including in terms of confidence building are clear. and given those, this increasing interconnectedness -- particularly with certain markets -- reducing this uncertainty is going to be key to the health of the global economy and to a lot of those regions that are still very dynamic to continue to grow at a pace that is sustainable and necessary for the well being of their population. this is excessively too general because when you go down the list of the emerging market economies and the low
Search Results 0 to 7 of about 8 (some duplicates have been removed)